Moody’s Analytics revises downward global GDP forecasts for 2022, 2023

Moody’s Analytics revises downward global GDP forecasts for 2022, 2023

Moody’s Analytics said global growth fell in the second quarter on an annualised basis for the first time since the depths of the virus outbreak in early 2020, driven by contractions in the US, the UK, and China. — Reuters pic

Monday, 26 Sep 2022 11:34 AM MYT

KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 26 — Moody’s Analytics has revised its global real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for 2022 and 2023 downward to 2.7 per cent and 2.3 per cent, respectively.

This is from forecasts of 4.2 per cent for 2022 and 3.6 per cent for 2023 in January.

“While the global economy is projected to grow in 2022, any policy missteps or additional risks would increase the threat of a worldwide recession in the next 12 months above its current assessment of just over even odds,” Moody’s Analytics said in a note today.

“The global economy is at a crossroads as the nascent post-pandemic recovery has quickly morphed into a darker and more fragile environment.

“Record-high inflation in the US and Europe from supply shortages and surging commodity prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are weighing on the global expansion and are compounded by an aggressive monetary policy response.

“At the same time, China’s economy is facing challenges on multiple fronts, including a cooling property market and a buildup of risks in the financial sector,” it added.

As a result, Moody’s Analytics said global growth fell in the second quarter on an annualised basis for the first time since the depths of the virus outbreak in early 2020, driven by contractions in the US, the UK, and China.

“More broadly, performance remains uneven among the world’s major economies — the US, China, Japan, India, and the five largest economies in Western Europe.

“Outcomes will continue to diverge through 2023 due to differing trade and investment linkages to Russia and Ukraine, particularly in relation to energy products,” it said. — Bernama